Littleton, CO and Vicinity Weather Forecasts and Advisories

Area Forecast Discussion (National Weather Service)

     



AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
343 AM MST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER UTAH AND WRN
COLORADO AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THRU TONIGHT WITH WK SW
FLOW ALOFT.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE MTNS BY AFTN WITH LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  THUS MAY
SEE SOME SCT -SHSN DEVELOP BY AFTN WHICH WILL LINGER THRU TONIGHT.
EAST OF THE MTNS IT SHOULD BE DRY THRU TONIGHT.  AFTN HIGHS OVER NERN
CO WILL BE ALTERED BY SNOWPACK ESPECIALLY OVER SRN AREAS OF NERN CO
WHILE FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA BORDER SNOW
COVER IS FAR LESS.  SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK
OVER DEEPER SNOWPACK SO GFS TEMPS LOOK MORE REALISTIC THAN NAM HIGHS
AT THIS POINT.  THUS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
IN THE DEEPER SNOW COVER AREAS WITH MID TO UPPER 30S IN THOSE AREAS
WITH FAR LESS SNOW COVER.

.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
COLORADO ON MONDAY.  IT OPENS INTO AN UPPER TROUGH AND MOVES ACROSS
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT.  MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY IS
PROGGED ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN DOWNWARD ENERGY IS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  BENIGN SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR AND UPSLOPE FLOW PROGGED INTO THE CWA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS ARE
EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT AROUND MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON
ALL THE MODELS.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE
PLAINS THE REST OF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN
DECREASE.  MOISTURE IS PRETTY SPARSE OVER ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A BIT OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN OVER ALL THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS A TAD OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING...THEN
NOTHING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  MODELS HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE...
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...AND A BIT BETTER PLAIN`S UPSLOPE THAN THEY HAD
YESTERDAY CONCERNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT`S POPS.  WILL GO WITH
"CHANCE"S IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN "LIKELY"S MONDAY EVENING.
FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL GO WITH 20-40%S...BEST DURING
MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS.  MOUNTAIN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS.  FOR TEMPERATURES...
MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE 0-1.5 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS.  TUESDAY`S
READINGS LOOK 1-4 C COLDER THAN MONDAY`S.  FOR THE LATER DAYS...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THURSDAY MORNING.  BY THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED.  THIS CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  AN
UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.  MOISTURE IS LACKING
ON THE GFS...BUT THERE IS A BIT MORE ON THE ECMWF THE THURSDAY NIGHT
TROUGH.   TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THRU TONIGHT.  LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT ELY BY AFTN AND THEN TRANSITION BACK TO
DRAINAGE AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...RPK